More likely California voters oppose Wealth Tax than support it
SACRAMENTO, CA — A new survey of likely voters across California finds support for Proposition 40 slipping, with 47% saying they will vote “no” on the Wealth Tax compared to 44% in favor based on the ballot label.
According to the poll, conducted by FM3 Research, while a broad majority of voters are aware of the measure, fewer than half support it given the ballot label, with more “no” voters certain of their vote than “yes” voters. The ballot label vote is a critical metric, as it is the one piece of information every voter will see before deciding.
FM3 completed 1,250 online and telephone interviews with likely November 2026 voters in California from August 23-27, 2026. Notably, this survey was taken before campaign advertising ramps up.
Key findings include:
- Fewer than half support Prop 40 based on the ballot label, with 47% saying they would vote “no” and 44% saying they would vote “yes.” More voters say they would “definitely” vote no than are certain of their yes vote, at 39% and 28% respectively.
- Four in five voters are aware of Prop 40. Fully 81% say they have heard at least something about “Prop 40, a tax on certain taxpayers with assets over $1 billion.” 28% say they have heard “a great deal.”
- Those aware of the measure largely oppose it. Half (50%) of those aware of the measure oppose it, while just 38% support it.
A growing, bipartisan coalition of doctors, teachers, small business owners, community clinics, labor unions, firefighters, civil rights leaders, healthcare providers, first responders, affordable housing organizations, working families and many others strongly oppose Proposition 40. They all warn that this measure is bad for California’s budget, economy, and future.
Just last week, the San Francisco Democratic Party voted to oppose Proposition 40. This followed two of California’s most prominent civil rights organizations — Equality California and NAACP California Hawaii State Conference — announcing their opposition to the measure. State lawmakers representing communities across California also recently came out against Proposition 40, detailing how the measure will blow a hole in the state budget, cost California billions, shortchange schools and other priorities, and undermine emergency management.
Other leading organizations opposing Proposition 40 include: the California Teachers Association (CTA), Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California (PPAC), State Building & Construction Trades Council of California, Housing California, California Primary Care Association (CPCA), California Professional Firefighters (CPF), California Medical Association, United Domestic Workers (UDW), California Hospital Association (CHA), and many more. A full list of the growing No on 40 coalition is here.